El Nido, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

037
FXUS66 KHNX 182111
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
211 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024


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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. There is a 60 percent probability for 0.10 inch or more of
rainfall in the San Joaquin Valley on Thursday and a 15 to 30
percent probability for 0.25 inch or more.
2. There is a 50 to 85 percent probability for 0.25 inch or more
of rainfall across the Sierra Nevada from Fresno County north
and less than a 50 percent probability south of Fresno County.
There is a 25 percent probability for 0.50 inch or more rainfall
in Yosemite Valley on Thursday.
3. There is a 49 percent probability for 1 inch or more of
snowfall at Tioga Pass on Thursday and a 24 percent probability
for 2 inches or more. Snow levels will be around 9,000 feet.
4. There is up to a 30 percent chance for thunderstorms across
the Sierra Nevada, San Joaquin Valley, and West Side Hills on
Thursday, highest around Yosemite NP. There is a 15 to 20
percent chance for thunderstorms across the San Joaquin Valley
and West Side Hills on Thursday.
5. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal through
Thursday before a weekend warmup.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The low pressure system that has brought cooler temperatures to
the region and will bring rain and snow to the region tomorrow
is sitting just off the coast of Northern California. It will
begin tracking southward along the California coast.
Temperatures will continue to be 10-15 degrees below normal for
this time of the year. There remains a chance of some showers
throughout the San Joaquin Valley today alongside a 20 to 25
percent chance of thunderstorms along the Sierra Crest.

However, most of the precipitation looks to fall tomorrow
through tomorrow evening. Elevations 9,000 feet and above could
see 2 to 5 inches of snow tomorrow. Tioga Pass, in particular,
looks to see up to 4 inches of snow. Probabilities for snow in
Tioga Pass are as follows: 49 percent for one or more inches, 24
percent chance for two or more inches, and three percent for
four or more inches. Due to the early nature of the snow
associated with this low pressure system, a Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for areas above 9,000 feet from 2pm
today through 8pm tomorrow night. People traveling in these
areas should prepare for wintry road conditions.

Alongside this snow will be rain in elevations below 9,000 feet.
There is a 50 to 85 percent probability of 0.25 inches or more
of rainfall across the Sierra Nevada north of Fresno. There is
also a 60 percent probability of 0.10 inches or more of rainfall
for the San Joaquin Valley. Much of this rain and precipitation
looks to fall Thursday through Thursday afternoon and into the
evening.

Additionally, there is the chance for widespread thunderstorms
throughout the Sierra Nevada, San Joaquin Valley, and West Side
Hills tomorrow as well. Highest probabilities for thunderstorms
are in the Sierra Nevada, at 30 percent, though there is a 15 to
20 percent chance of thunderstorms throughout most of the San
Joaquin Valley. In particular, model ensemble guidance favors a
20 to 25 percent chance of thunderstorms in the West Side Hills.
Because of a burn scar in this area, the Hurricane Burn Scar, a
Flood Watch has been issued due to models favoring training
thunderstorms moving across the area frequently throughout the
day. These thunderstorms could lead to high rainfall rates and
localized flooding in the warned area. This Flood Watch is
valid from 5am tomorrow morning through 11pm tomorrow night.
People within the Flood Watch should closely monitor any weather
alerts should any flood warnings need to be issued.

On Friday, the low pressure system will sweep east across
California and then move out of the area. With the low pressure
system out of the area, ridging will begin to take place,
warming the forecast area back up to near normal temperatures
and bringing dry conditions to the area through at least the
weekend.

&&


.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities near wildfires.
Mountain obscurations over the Sierra Nevada after 18Z Wednesday
due to rain and snow showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  09/17/2024 14:53
EXPIRES: 09/18/2024 23:59
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
CAZ308-313-336.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ323-326-
328-330.
&&

$$

public/aviation....AS
PIO/IDSS...........BSO

weather.gov/hanford